Macro Context

The rate, currency and expectations every fund here is measured against, from bacen_sgs, bacen_ptax and bacen_expectativas (BACEN). Units are BACEN's and not converted: SELIC meta is % a.a., SELIC diária and CDI are % a.d., inflation is month-on-month; the unit is on every inventory row.

Policy Rate

SELIC meta is % a.a.; daily SELIC and CDI are % per day, deliberately not converted (BACEN SGS, daily series).

Inflation

Each series is the change in that month, not a 12-month accumulation (BACEN SGS, monthly, published in M+1). Blank means unpublished or not ingested, never zero.

Inside the IPCA

Headline against all five BCB cores: EX0 and EX2 (exclusion), MS (trimmed mean, smoothed), MA (trimmed mean, not smoothed) and DP (double-weighted), from bacen_sgs via api.inflation (monthly, M+1). Lines are the change in that month; the 12-month line is BACEN's own accumulation (SGS 13522), not chained here.

IPCA-15 (SGS 7478) prices roughly the 15th of the previous month to the 15th of this one and publishes inside the month, so it leads the IPCA by about two weeks. Both are the change in that month; the latest point can be IPCA-15 alone.

Monitored prices move on regulatory calendars; free prices are demand-sensitive.

What Moved the IPCA

IBGE's nine groups for the latest month held, from ibge_ipca_item_monthly (SIDRA 7060, monthly, M+1) via api.inflation_items. Contribution = weight × change ÷ 100, in p.p. of the headline and the one derived number here; the bars sum to the month's IPCA to rounding. Weights are IBGE's.

The same contribution month by month, last 36 months: each bar's stack sums to that month's IPCA to rounding. A month is drawn only once all nine groups have landed.

Inside a Group

Pick a group to see its subgroups' contributions over the same 36 months, and its subgroups, items and subitems in the latest month (IBGE's tree, ibge_ipca_item_monthly). Contribution is weight × change ÷ 100 in p.p. of the headline. Levels nest: a subgroup's contribution already contains its items', so the column sums within one level, never down the whole table.

Activity

Monthly GDP, BACEN SGS 4380, in R$ million at current prices, as published: nominal (inflation is inside every change) and not seasonally adjusted, so a month against the one before is not a growth rate. BACEN publishes it a month or two late; the chart ends at its last reading.

Exchange Rates

PTAX month-end sell rate, BRL per unit (BACEN, daily). JPY and ARS are orders of magnitude smaller and appear in the table instead.

spread_num2 = (sell − buy) / sell, in p.p. All five currencies are listed even without data, so a failed ingest shows blank.

Focus Consensus

Median from the Focus bulletin (ExpectativasMercadoAnuais, BACEN): the last survey in each month, at the current-calendar-year horizon, so adjacent points are the same forecast. Months never re-fetched after the horizon key landed render blank, a coverage gap not a blended vintage. Every January the line steps because the forecast target rolls over, not a revision or error.

Standard deviation across forecasters for the same readings; blanks are the same coverage gap.

Forward Paths

Each path is one survey, the latest held (survey of 2026-10-09 for the monthly IPCA), read across the periods it forecasts, so the x-axis is the month or year the forecast is about, not when it was made. The monthly IPCA path is ExpectativaMercadoMensais, % change in that month; it starts at the earliest month the survey still forecast: the month just ended if IBGE had not published it by the survey date, otherwise the survey's own month.

The SELIC path is the year-end SELIC target from ExpectativasMercadoAnuais, % a.a., for the survey's year and the four after (survey of 2026-10-09 ). It is not a meeting-by-meeting COPOM path: the per-meeting endpoint is stored with one meeting per survey date, so that path cannot be drawn.

Latest Focus Reading per Endpoint

Every pair the pipeline subscribes to. Horizon is the period the forecast is about; Survey Date is when it was collected.

SGS Series Coverage

All 35 configured series, each with its own unit; a series with no observations shows blank counts. Last Value is in the unit on its own row: do not read the column down the page.

Ingest health is on Pipeline Ops.